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这12条期货股票交易制胜法则

图片来源:Wind,截至2022年8月4日

这12条期货股票交易制胜法则

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这12条期货股票交易制胜法则

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For what I remember, I was always more afraid than anyone else. What happened? Almost nothing - I just had the bout. Are there any spasms of something wrong? Maybe he's 这12条期货股票交易制胜法则 afraid he's contagious. And then why are you talking about the 这12条期货股票交易制胜法则 devil? Why a prison? I had a piece of bread. It was fresh and fragrant. Yesterday I made him his own hand. I have to say that I really did this time. Suddenly my bite began to bang in my throat. Somewhere near the window, he sat down and began to sneak around his changing trills around. He whispers and leaves for a moment where he likes. Everywhere he finds 这12条期货股票交易制胜法则 something in his beak . I've been trying to be in his place .

投资进阶丨如何通过科学“择时”来提高制胜率

数据来源:Wind,统计区间:1990年12月19日-2022年8月2日

数据来源:Wind,统计区间:1990年12月19日-2022年8月2日

■ 科学择时: 根据股市当下的点位,结合宏观经济基本面等多方信息综合判断验证,某一阶段的市场是否具有较为显著的配置价值。 同时,小泰提到的择时并非推荐“短线交易”,而是判断了市场此刻或某阶段是否适合持有该类别资产。 此时的“择时”,反而吹响了“长期持有”的号角。

在实践中,我们常以 “相对估值” ,即估值得到的不是股票价格的直接参考值,而是要与历史和其他股票进行纵向和横向的比较,来判读所处的估值水平是高是低。 市盈率 (考察期内,股票的价格和每股收益的比率)与 市净率 (每股股价与每股净资产的比率)则是反映相对估值的两大重要指标。

数据来源:Wind,统计区间:2012年8月3日-2022年8月2日

数据来源:Wind,统计区间:2012年8月3日-2022年8月2日

小泰为大家复盘了一下近十年来,上证综指收盘价与其市盈率的走势。 如上图直观显示,上证综指的价格与估值的成长路径大致趋同,仅仅在少数时间段内发生相背离的现象。 可见,作为判断当下股市“便宜或贵”的指标,相对估值的确是值得信赖的对象,反映了成分股的情况,可以更好地体现指数的价值。而根据万得资讯研究统计,也明确列示了近十年来上证指数估值的 机会值、中位数及危险值等 ,为投资者提供了清晰的指引。

图片来源:Wind,截至2022年8月4日

图片来源:Wind,截至2022年8月4日

那么只要估值“便宜”了就可以入场了吗?朋友们莫急, “便宜”与入场是不能划上绝对等号的 ;一方面,权益市场是资本市场的重要组成部分,但其也只是一部分,市场上还有债券、贵金属甚至艺术品等其他投资标的。“投资”也和购物一样,要讲究“性价比”。

小泰为诸位介绍最常使用,也可自行进行计算检验的一种: 股债性价比=(1/市盈率)/中国10年国债收益率。 我们来算算上证综指。

已知,目前上证综指市盈率(TTM)为12.31,中国10年国债到期收益率为0.0273, 所以当下股债性价比约等于2.98。 (数据来源:Wind,截至2022年8月4日)

分位点实际上是数理统计学科中的一个概念,又称为分位数,本质上指的就是连续分布函数中的大于等于或者小于等于一个点对应概率。应用于 投资一股债性价比中 ,分位点为将某一个数值在其所在的数组中的分布,从低至高或从高至低的排序位置,即 “当前的股债性价比在历史中处于什么样的位置”。

图片来源:Wind,截至2022年8月4日

图片来源:Wind,截至2022年8月4日

说到这儿,如何科学择时的理论讲解告一段落,接下来向诸位展示一下“干货中的硬核”。 华泰证券 资管再次以万得偏股混合型基金指数(885001·WI)为投资对象 , 测算了在2012年1月1日-2022年6月30日这个时间段内,任意交易日投资该指数在不同持有时长下获得正收益的概率;以及在该指数风险溢价比在75%分位及以上的交易日内,投资该指数在不同持有时长下获得正收益的概率;并将结果进行直观比较。

数据来源:Wind,统计区间:2012年1月1日-2022年6月30日

数据来源:Wind,统计区间:2012年1月1日-2022年6月30日